The sight of soldiers and armed police in the streets of Kampala only serves to bring back memories of Uganda's bloody past in the days of Amin and Obote. Despite his critics, current president Yoweri Museveni has at least managed to keep a lid on most of the diverse ethnic factional tensions seemingly never too far below the surface in central Africa. The two major conflicts (there are others) under his watch are ongoing, but the current riots in Uganda's industrial and political heartland are different in cause and potential effect.

In the north, the Lord's Resistance Army continue their debased guerrilla war of faux-Christian millenarianism, despite international breast-beating and expressions of assistance that never quite materialise. In the far northeast, Karamajong cattle-rustling and cross-border raiding in Kenya fuel a low-level conflict that rarely hits the headlines, and is seemingly without resolution.

In Kampala, like most cities with an ethnically diverse population and commerce on its mind, these conflicts have often seemed a world away and rarely impinge on residents' daily lives. Although Kampala is the site of the Buganda kingship, and is the heart of the region in which the Baganda mostly live, the two-track political system of Museveni as political leader, and current king (Kabaka) Ronald Muwenda Mutebi as principally ceremonial figurehead of one of the country's five remaining kingdoms, has rubbed along for years without resulting in significant violence.

That has changed with Museveni's decision not to extend security guarantees to a planned visit by Mutebi to Kayunga district, a few dozen miles to the northeast of the capital. Ostensibly, Museveni was reacting to the statements of the minority Banyala group in Kayunga, who promised to protest the Kabaka's visit on the basis that they too want recognition and some form of semi-autonomy. In response, Baganda in Kampala took to the streets, resulting in the inevitable stand-off, and eventual violent confrontations, with police and the military.

Ten people are reported dead, shops remain closed, and Kampala - always a slightly edgy city in the face of political churn - remains tense and uncertain. For the first time I'm aware of, reports are leaking out of the city via Twitter and Facebook, although this will have little effect on how Museveni decides to proceed.

Museveni is identified with Ankole, one of the four kingdoms, centred on his home town of Mbarara. Although, like the other kingdoms, Ankole was never officially reconstituted after its abolition by Milton Obote in 1967, Museveni has often been accused of promoting Banyankole concerns ahead of other groups in his administration and policies. It is also one reason why Museveni was so involved with the Rwandan Patriotic Front, both the RPF and the Ankole being historically close to the Rwandese Tutsi. In Kampala, people often refer to him as an outsider, and it is little surprise that Baganda choose to openly voice their displeasure at what is seen as a cuss to their nominal leader, Kabaka Ronald.

Where we go from here is anyone's guess. Museveni has shown increasing signs over recent years of establishing a bona fide autocracy, despite being feted by the West and international donors. His divide-and-rule strategy has, curiously, mostly worked to prevent bloodshed between ethnic groups. On the other hand, his human rights record is not good, and nor is his tolerance for journalists and other critics of his regime.

It's not all down to him though. If Baganda stay on the streets, the situation will probably deteriorate further, an obvious statement perhaps, but an important one. Large-scale rioting, if it so becomes, will only result in more civilian deaths. The Kabaka himself has the ability to restore some kind of order, and this is perhaps the best option at present. It is hard to see what negotiation would achieve, although Museveni is quite capable of brokering a face-saving agreement for both sides should he choose to do so. The most unlikely outcome is that the Kabaka and the Buganda nation he represents will emerge from this with any more real power than they currently possess.

The present situation is probably the most serious internal challenge Museveni has faced in his 23 years in power. How it is resolved is largely up to him, but we should not underestimate the ability of leaders to sacrifice their own people in pursuit of power, however incremental the gain might be.